Note: This post has been updated.
Here is an interesting look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average from around the time of the (first?) Great Depression until now.
If you follow the line through Reagan’s first term, the Dow should be at about 2,500-3,000.
Here are the Asian markets for those curious about what’s happening.
[...] I mentioned in a previous post, if you look at the historical trend, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had a pretty steady rate of [...]
It is a bit misleading to look at long term data on a linear chart. If you look at a logarithmic chart and estimate a long term trendline, you get what I’ve linked to as my website.
Of course a trendline is affected by every data point in the series, and should always be taken with a grain of salt.
However if you believe in reading charts, it would be likely that we’re entering a period, much like 1940-55 or 1970-95 where we trend parallel to but below the long-run average. That long run average appears to be roughly 9000 for early 2009.
Of course, grain of salt added, I don’t know what I’m talking about. If I did, I’d be rich by now.